Modelling support is establishing an analytical framework to inform optimal investment decisions in NDCs implementation maximizing both socioeconomic & climate objectives. The key issue considered is ensuring modelling can extrapolate the cumulative carbon mitigation (e.g. carbon sinks enhanced, carbon sequestered etc.) & socioeconomic (e.g. jobs created, %GDP expansion, income savings etc.) impact of scaling alternative investment trajectories of NDCs implementation vis-à-vis business as usual (BAU) investment trajectories.
Modelling teams have been constituted in the 8 countries drawing technical actors from priority NDC sectors – primarily energy, agriculture, economic planning and climate sectors of environment & forestry. In each of the countries, leading institutions of regional repute have been appointed to lead the country modelling teams. For example, in Cameroon, the University of Yaoundé 1 is the lead. In Mozambique, the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry (FAEF), the Eduardo Mondlane University is the lead. In Zambia, the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD), under the Ministry of Transport and Communication is the lead.
Inventories of existing greenhouse gas emission models have been analysed by country teams to establish gaps to be bridged to enhance their capability to model cumulative effect of integrating sectors and simultaneously model socioeconomic & climate impacts. In Cameroon, 4 models - REMI models, RIMS II, JEDI, and IMPLAN, have been shortlisted for enhancement. The enhancement involves integrating these models so they complement each other for policy decision support to maximize job creation, income & macro-economic growth alongside carbon offsetting impacts of an investment trajectory of greening agro-value chains utilizing clean energy for processing and transportation - the chosen strategic trajectory for Cameroon NDC implementation. Starting off with the cassava value chain demonstrated under component 1 but factoring flexibility for expansion into crop value chains in all 5 agro-ecological zones of Cameroon.
In Cote d’Ivoire, a total of 33 inventoried models were evaluated. 2 models – LEAD and T21, are been developed into an integrated modelling tool to extrapolate cumulative socioeconomic & carbon offsetting impacts of policies upscaling the chosen country NDC priorities. Training on the EX-Ante Carbon-balance Tool, and EX-ACT Value Chain were also undertaken through collaboration with the UN FAO bioenergy project for potential of integrating these into the integrated model.
The international technical team has been linked up with the country modelling teams and the process of analysing gaps to bridge by adapting models & training modelling teams towards establishing the country modelling structure is underway. The Centre for Climate Strategies USA (CCS) is technically backstopping country teams in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivore, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is technically backstopping Kenya, Morocco, and Zambia. The Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) of the University of Amsterdam is backstopping Ghana and Mozambique.